With the eight rounds of cooling measures, the property market has retraced southward by 10% and showing signs of a bottom. If you are still hoping for it to go south by another 10% or even to 2009Q2 level, do you know what sort of events can cause it to happen?
Here are some hypothetical events that are essential to make that happen.
- New cooling measure adding on top to the existing 8 cooling measures
- Direct foreign investment withdrew – more companies leaving Singapore for another country, severe oversupply of properties to let
- Singapore unemployment rises to double digit – more people unable to repay their mortgage
- Fewer developers bidding for Government land sales resulting in lower successful bid for land prices
- Sustained increase interest rates – unlikely but if it happens buyers will need to pay more for monthly mortgage
- Fewer attractive new private condominium launch that cannot be missed – leading to oversupply of unsold properties
- Smaller property developers reduce price point to reduce penalties from unsold completed units
- Lower transaction volume from a reduction of qualified buyers or sellers
- Rising tension and instability geopolitical situation in the south-east Asia region repelling investors to channel their funds elsewhere
- When terror threats slip through Singapore’s multiple layers of firewalls
- and many more.
Now, do you still think the property market can go south by another 10%?
If you think so, when would that happen? Share with me.